Scenario Discontinuity Analysis: Sensing and Guidance July 2015

About This Report

SBI's Driverless Futures presents the first in a series of Scenario Discontinuity Analysis reports. These research-based reports analyze elements that are likely to have exceptionally high influence over the future of automated-vehicle commercialization. This Scenario Discontinuity Analysis report focuses on sensing and guidance technologies for automated vehicles, discussing technology alternatives, their potential future developments, and the implications of those developments.

This report is available to sponsors of Driverless Futures Phase 1.

Table of Contents

Overview 2
Many Possible Outcomes 3
Discontinuities 4
Potential Development Pathways 5
The Current State of the Art 6
Localization Limitations 7
Prevailing Approach to Localization 8
Mapping and Obstacle Detection 9
Efforts to Achieve Low-Cost Lidar 10
Signs of a Visual Disruption 11
The Limits of "Very Accurate Maps" 12
What about V2X Communications? 13
Sensor Fusion: Benefits and Limits 14
Wild Cards: The Edge of Plausibility 15
Causal Factors: The Macro Picture 16
Causal Factors: Technology's Role 17
Causal Factors: Path-Dependence 18
Technology Signposts 19
Technology Watchlists 20
Concluding Perspectives 21
A Note on Levels 24
About SBI 25