Scenario Discontinuity Analysis: Ownership and Access September 2015

About This Report

SBI's Driverless Futures presents the second in a series of Scenario Discontinuity Analysis reports. These research-based reports analyze elements that are likely to have exceptionally high influence over the future of automated-vehicle commercialization. This Scenario Discontinuity Analysis report focuses on how automation technologies may impact vehicle ownership and access. The report discusses potential technology, business-environment, and demand developments, and the implications of those developments.

This report is available to sponsors of Driverless Futures Phase 1.

Table of Contents

Overview 2
Discontinuities 3
Potential Development Pathways 4
Transportation Budgets Today 5
Ownership and its Alternatives 6
A Universe of Smartphone-Summoned Transportation 7
Major Trends Impacting Car Ownership 8
Impacts of Autonomy on Today's Vehicle Business Models 9
Some Demands Persist Regardless of Automation 10
Impacts of Ownership Models on Stakeholders 11
Scenario A: Autonomy that Favors Traditional Ownership 12
Scenario B: Autonomy that Favors Transit 13
Scenario C: Vehicle Sharing with Limited Autonomy 14
Using Scenarios to Test Strategies and Identify Signposts 15
Signposts: Early Detection of Ownership Trends 16
Signposts for Scenario A—Can't Keep Up 17
Signposts for Scenario B—Hand in Hand 18
Signposts for Scenario C—On Your Own 19
Concluding Perspectives 20
A Note on Levels 24
About SBI 25