Scenario Discontinuity Analysis: Liability and Regulation October 2015

About This Report

SBI's Driverless Futures presents the third in a series of Scenario Discontinuity Analysis reports. These research-based reports analyze elements that are likely to have exceptionally high influence over the future of automated-vehicle commercialization. This Scenario Discontinuity Analysis report focuses on how potential liability-related legal and regulatory developments could impact development, capabilities, and usefulness of vehicle automation technologies.

This report is available to sponsors of Driverless Futures Phase 1.

Table of Contents

Overview 2
Liability Issues 3
Discontinuities 4
Potential Development Pathways 5
Product Liability Laws 6
Increasingly Difficult Cases 7
Problems of Proof 8
Impacts of User Actions 9
Impacts of Regulations 10
Scenario A—Can't Keep Up: Conventional Liability Rules 11
Scenario B—Hand in Hand: Certification and Licensure 12
Scenario C—On Your Own: Proactive, Punitive Restrictions 13
Signposts: Early Detection of Regulation and Liability Trends 14
Signposts from Scenario A—Can't Keep Up 15
Signposts from Scenario B—Hand in Hand 16
Signposts from Scenario C—On Your Own 17
Concluding Perspectives 18
A Note on Levels 23
About SBI 24