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Scenario Discontinuity Analysis: Artificial Intelligence and Big Data March 2017

About This Report

Will the artificial intelligences (AIs) that guide autonomous vehicles in the future be strategic differentiators for vehicle makers? Or will vehicle AI just become another commodity? Is the path toward producing a fully-driverless vehicle using end-to-end deep learning truly as straightforward as it's hyped up to be, or are there potential pitfalls that no one is talking about? Will big datasets—and the infrastructure and tools to leverage them—truly matter in the driverless future? Can innovations in vehicle AI be meaningfully protected against copying over the long term? This Scenario Discontinuity Analysis addresses these and many other key issues that could have a major impact on the driverless future.

This report is available to sponsors of Driverless Futures Phase 2.

Table of Contents

AI and Big Data Overview 2
Key Uncertainties 3
AI's Ascendancy is Uncertain 4
Alternative Architectures 5
Differentiator vs. Commodity 6
Big Data and Why it Matters... 7
Persistence of Advantages 8
Testing and Verification 9
AI vs. the Business Environment 10
Scenario A: It's the AI, Stupid! 11
Key Concepts from Scenario A 12
Signposts from Scenario A 13
Scenario B: Precious Data; Cheap AI 14
Key Concepts from Scenario B 15
Signposts from Scenario B 16
Scenario C: AI in the Background 17
Key Concepts from Scenario C 18
Signposts from Scenario C 19
About SBI 20