Scan Monthly No. 004June 2003 |
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Signals of Change
URLs for Products: The Internet of Things
SoC013
Thanks to emerging radio-frequency identification technology, every product on store shelves could eventually have its own unique URL on the Web. MIT's Auto-ID Center refers to the arrangement as the Internet of things. Just how far companies can take the concept remains a question, but the technology promises to transform supply chains and extend value chains to include postpurchase consumer-use, recycling, warranty, and product-recall applications.
Brand as Network
SoC014
The COO of Coca-Cola has proposed turning the world of advertising upside down. Steve Heyer would like to see Coca-Cola collect revenues from ad agencies instead of just bills. Heyer believes that Coca-Cola's brand audience—larger than the audience of the top 20 TV networks combined—is an exploitable asset. Coca-Cola's brand is a valuable access network in the attention economy. Its proposal, practical or not, is testimony to the continuing growth of the attention economy and its importance in today's commercial environment—access to consumer attention is an increasingly valuable commodity.
Geocaching
SoC015
Geocaching started out as a game linking the virtual world with the real. But its derivatives have gone totally virtual, providing users with the ability to hang digital messages and content from wireless-technology skyhooks conveniently accessible to anyone with the right mobile device. Technophiles are having a field day with geocaching, leaving the rest of us looking for a mass-market application or business model for the capability.
Powered by Chicken Fat
SoC016
Consumers in the United Kingdom grabbed a good deal when they saw it, buying biodiesel fuel that producers created with used cooking oil. Now companies are catching on. Supermarket chain Asda is developing the means to recycle the cooking oil that it uses to prepare food for its stores and restaurants to power its fleet of trucks.
Insights
| Influences of Past Purchases on Future Purchase Decisions | View summary |
| D03-2430 | Download this Insight |
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Consumers encounter an unmanageable number of choices when they decide to purchase a product or service. Markets are overflowing with emerging technologies, products for smaller and smaller market niches, and new products and services that are the result of globalization. In turn, the number of product and service categories is increasing. This ever-changing array of products and services is also a challenge for companies seeking to market their wares, increasing the difficulty of reading and predicting consumer purchase behavior. However, marketers know that past purchase behavior determines, or at least strongly influences, future purchase decisions, and new technologies for collecting consumer information are opening the door to more sophisticated analyses of this connection. Over time, consumers move from one purchasing category to another in line with certain psychological, demographic, and cultural factors and in response to technological necessities. Companies can gain insights into consumers' likely future purchases by looking at the way consumers move from one category to another. With the resulting insights, marketers can increase the odds of targeting the right consumer segment at the right time. Author: Martin Schwirn. 16 pages. Index Keywords: Consumer Behavior; Marketing; Product Development; Strategic Planning. |
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| Bottom-Up versus Top-Down Artificial Intelligence | View summary |
| D03-2431 | Download this Insight |
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The gradual shift in strategy that has characterized research in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) in the past 20 years has not gone unnoticed, particularly by the founders of the AI discipline. Recently, Marvin Minsky, cofounder of the MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in 1959, bemoaned the current prevalence of bottom-up approaches to AI research. Bottom-up approaches work toward providing machines with intelligence through programming large numbers of independent entities with relatively simple sets of rules. Operating in concert, the entities demonstrate constructive behavior in the same way that insects create complex social behavior and structures from the combined efforts of individuals with extremely limited intelligence. Researchers often refer to the results of the bottom-up approach as swarm intelligence. In contrast, the top-down approach favored by Minsky involves the coding of thousands of logic rules and relations into a central intelligence repository to create a form of common sense typical of humans. This study contrasts the two approaches and provides examples of some of researchers' recent efforts to develop machines that exhibit intelligence in any of a variety of forms. Author: Marcelo Hoffmann. 6 pages. Index Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Computer Industry; Knowledge Management; Robotics. |
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| Solid-State Thin-Film Microbattery Developments | View summary |
| D03-2432 | Download this Insight |
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The unique features of thin-film lithium microbatteries make them ideal candidates for powering a range of microelectromechanical systems, microrobots, microsensors, and integrated circuits. Not only can such microbatteries provide power to components locally, but their solid-state construction ensures that they are safer under operating conditions than batteries that contain a liquid or gel electrolyte. A number of companies, especially manufacturers of thin-film devices, are hoping to tap into potentially lucrative new markets for both ultrathin stand-alone batteries and integrated devices. So far, however, the development of microbatteries has not kept pace with progress in the miniaturization of electronic components, and no solid-state thin-film battery has yet entered the market. For microbatteries to see the commercial success that developers hope for, they need to address issues of packaging, power density, stand-alone battery thickness, and more efficient production processes. If developers can meet these challenges, three application areas show the greatest short-term potential: RFID tags, smart cards, and medical implantables. Longer term, advances in microelectronics could well lead to new products hungry for miniature power sources. Author: Rosamund Gee. 6 pages. Index Keywords: Electronics Components; Energy Storage; Medical Research; Mobile Communications. |
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| Homeland Security: High-Tech on the Defensive | View summary |
| D03-2433 | Download this Insight |
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The creation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in the United States following the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 has spurred much discussion about how the department will spend its $36 billion FY2004 budget. This study focuses on two crucial areas of budget spending: biotechnology research and information technology (IT). DHS is resetting the biotechnology research agenda, moving the focus of the U.S. national laboratories toward biodefense agents, such as vaccines and biological-threat–detection sensors. Much anticipation about DHS spending on IT research and development has caused what some people have termed a "homeland security bubble"—financial hype—as companies scramble to promote their latest emerging technology. However, the real opportunity for IT companies vying to do business with DHS is in the massive task of applying existing technology to link the 22 federal agencies that constitute DHS. With a better understanding of the real DHS research and IT agenda, companies can make an informed attempt to work with the nascent department. Authors: Andrew Broderick and Greg Powell. 15 pages. Index Keywords: Biotechnology; Information Technology; North America; Research and Development. |
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Calendar
Scan™ Briefings
The biannual Scan™ Briefings in which Scan staff present Scan analysis and findings in Menlo Park, California, will take place on:
- 23 October 2003 at 9:00 am
- 20 May 2004 at 9:00 am
Scan™ Abstract Meetings
Scan abstract meetings (in which SRIC-BI [now SBI] staff participate in a free-form discussion of current Scan abstracts) are open for client observation/participation on:
- 23 July 2003 at 9:00 am
- 17 September 2003 at 9:00 am
- 22 October 2003 at 1:30 pm
- 21 January 2004 at 9:00 am
- 17 March 2004 at 9:00 am
- 19 May 2004 at 9:00 am
Watch List
The Scan program's scanning and research processes identify areas on the periphery of your organizations's focus that constitute potential opportunities or threats. The areas that we decide bear watching go on Scan's watch list of defining forces that are transforming the business environment. Current watch-list topics include:
