Scan Monthly No. 005July 2003 |
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Signals of Change
Technology Shaping Behavior
SoC017
Young people with constant exposure to information technology are subject to constantly evolving shifts in behavior as a result of the technologies they use. The rapid adoption of cell phones, video games, computers, and the Internet is having various effects. Researchers are only beginning to plumb exactly what new behaviors are emerging under the influence of these technologies and what they mean for dealing with employees, colleagues, partners, and customers. Predicting how the new behaviors will influence next-generation technologies is even more difficult but just as important.
Fast Mass Analysis
SoC018
The cost of assessing, acquiring, and processing data has traditionally led researchers to limit the variables they analyze to those few that they have a hunch are important. But technology advances are slashing the cost of data acquisition. Why not just measure all the variables that one can find inexpensively and sort out which have what effect later? Why continue playing a hunch when one can look at all the data? Rules-Based Medicine in Austin, Texas, is doing mass blood screenings in a manner that should be setting off lightbulbs in the heads of researchers and businesspeople in a variety of arenas.
Emotion Recognition
SoC019
Researchers are making progress at quantifying an increasing number of physiological traits associated with the most basic human emotions. Machines that can measure those traits will be able to recognize the presence of particular emotions. Although years will pass before machines can read or interpret human emotions, the ability to recognize basic emotions will come in handy in the near term for marketing, product-development, security, and safety applications.
Swarming Difficulties
SoC020
Swarm intelligence doesnt have quite the luster that it had in the dot-com days: Several companies selling products based on swarm intelligence have failed or been acquired. But the markets reticence is likely due more to inertia and conservatism than to swarms rate of success, which has been good. Companies pursuing innovative solutions in a conservative marketplace often wind up with the lead in implementing the next generation of business process solutions.
Insights
| Speech-Mining and Translation Technologies: Looking for Traction in the Marketplace |
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| D03-2434 | Download this Insight |
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Two new speech-technology areas—speech mining and speech-to-speech translation—have great market potential, with promise to affect virtually every industry. Both areas are just beginning to move from the laboratory to early commercial applications. These advances are likely to provide tremendous benefits for many existing applications as well as to open completely new applications. Nonetheless, mass-market penetration of speech mining and speech-to-speech translation is unlikely anytime soon. Both technologies just entered the market and still display major shortcomings, including uneven reliability. Currently, the technologies can serve only well-defined application areas. But the stage is set for these new technology areas to enhance business processes, facilitate communications, and unlock a wide variety of consumer benefits. Though ongoing research and development are necessary to address critical problems, combining the technologies will provide even more powerful applications by freeing speech mining from language constraints. Author: Martin Schwirn. 15 pages. Index Keywords: Communication; Computer Software; Information Technology; Mobile Communications; Telecommunications. |
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| Nanobiotechnology Research and Commercial Applications in the Life Sciences |
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| D03-2435 | Download this Insight |
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Nanotechnology research aims to develop tools for studying and manipulating matter at the nanoscale—typically 0.1 nanometer to 100 nanometers—and to find ways to take advantage of properties or phenomena unique at the nanoscale to build materials and components. Combining this technology with biotechnology promises to open the door to an array of improved research tools and processes in the life sciences. At present, nanotechnologys greatest impact in the life sciences is in the development of improved research instrumentation and process capabilities. The future could also bring biology-based approaches to technology development and fabrication, such as molecular-scale tools for medical applications. Though industry participants agree that nanobiotechnology promises to launch a revolution in scientific and technological innovation, they disagree about the most realistic time frame for development and commercialization. The timing will depend on continued development of scientific research tools and methods, improved understanding of biological systems, support for interdisciplinary research, and development of an infrastructure for the testing, approval, and sale of nanobiotechnology-based products. Author: Andrew Broderick. 14 pages. Index Keywords: Biotechnology; Health Care; Information Technology; Medical Research; Nanotechnology; Pharmaceutical Industry. |
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| Benchmarking Corporate Performance: Emerging Tools and Metrics | View summary |
| D03-2436 | Download this Insight |
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Recent high-profile corporate-accounting scandals in the United States have engendered new skepticism about the accuracy, effectiveness, and observance of generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP), the standard for reporting company performance in the United States. These events—which include the bankruptcies of Enron Corp. (Houston, Texas), WorldCom Group (Clinton, Mississippi), Global Crossing Ltd. (Hamilton, Bermuda), and auditing firm Arthur Andersen LLP (Chicago, Illinois)—have spawned efforts to address a number of issues relating to corporate-governance structures, corporate-performance reporting, and accounting methods. As recent corporate scandals have increasingly highlighted the limitations of GAAP accounting, a number of other metrics, which focus on broader measures of corporate performance, are receiving increasing attention. As a result, a body of work is emerging that will allow firms to respond to regulations and investor demands for additional measures of corporate performance. As companies face increasing demand from investors and regulators to measure their performance beyond traditional financial standards, successful firms will undergo an active reevaluation process to implement new measures and standards to assess their performance. The use of new metrics, such as those that this study mentions, could result in higher levels of investor confidence and could ultimately result in a new source of competitive advantage. Author: Miguel de Figueiredo and Thomas M. McKenna. 10 pages. Index Keywords: Corporate Finance; Finance; Governance; Management; Strategic Management. |
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| Ten Lessons in Technology Development from Explorer | View summary |
| D03-2437 | Download this Insight |
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With more than 20 years experience monitoring emerging technologies, SRI Consulting Business Intelligences Explorer service has gained important insights useful for all companies wishing to understand the full commercialization potential of emerging technologies and in avoiding potential threats to market success. This study relates ten lessons from the Explorer services monitoring of emerging information, materials, communications, and biotechnologies in the past 20 years. Above all, Explorer analysts have learned that technologies follow natural evolutionary cycles that usually defy media hype and often survive the subsequent disappointments when market projections fail to materialize. Although planners seeking to understand the opportunities inherent in any emerging technology need to be aware of the hype phenomenon, they should not forsake investing enough to evaluate emerging technologies and monitor the underlying business or scientific activity to gauge the true development cycle. Authors: Andrew Broderick, Brock Hinzmann, and Thomas M. McKenna. 15 pages. Index Keywords: Research and Development; Strategic Planning; Technology Development; Technology Management. |
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Calendar
Scan™ Briefings
The 2003 biannual Scan™ Briefings in which Scan staff present Scan analysis and findings in Menlo Park, California, will take place on:
- 23 October 2003 at 9:00 am
- 20 May 2004 at 9:00 am
Scan™ Abstract Meetings
Scan abstract meetings (in which SRIC-BI [now SBI] staff participate in a free-form discussion of current Scan abstracts) are open for client observation/participation on:
- 17 September 2003 at 9:00 am
- 22 October 2003 at 1:30 pm
- 21 January 2004 at 9:00 am
- 17 March 2004 at 9:00 am
- 19 May 2004 at 1:00 pm
- 21 July 2004 at 9:00 am.
Watch List
The Scan program's scanning and research processes identify areas on the periphery of your organizations's focus that constitute potential opportunities or threats. The areas that we decide bear watching go on Scan's watch list of defining forces that are transforming the business environment. Current watch-list topics include:
