Scan Monthly No. 011January 2004 |
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Signals of Change
Surfing the Data Deluge
SoC037
Coping with the exponential increase in available data is proving to be a major choke point in realizing the advantages of continuously evolving information-technology (IT) capabilities. Having IT specialists do the filtering just isn't practical. The market is responding to the demand with data-analysis products that domain specialists can handle and that function usefully in a discovery rather than a monitoring mode. New intuitive interfaces help immensely.
Bettor Predictions
SoC038
Domain experts willing to bet (their own money) on the outcome of future events turn out to be fairly accurate predictors when a large enough number of experts participate in the betting. What would management learn about a series of new products in the production pipeline if it asked the company's thousands of employees to bet on which product would succeed and which would fail? Although the U.S. Defense Department recently had to abandon its plans for a predictive futures market on terrorism, a lot of other parties are taking advantage of the new computing and networking technologies that make predictive futures markets practical and potentially profitable.
Templates for Nanoscale Arrays
SoC039
Nanotechnology researchers are tapping naturally occurring arrays of biomolecules as templates for manufacturing, assembling, and organizing nanoscale elements, including individual molecules. In some cases, the biomolecules provide a framework for nanoscale self-assembly processes.
Segway's Second Act
SoC040
The market response to Dean Kamen's two-wheel Segway electric scooter has been markedly underwhelming, with only some 6000 units sold. But the robotics community is very interested in the Segway. And the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is evidently willing to fund that interest. The Segway's balancing capabilities turn out to be just what the doctor ordered for providing various types of robots with a small-footprint mobility and the means to cope with a world that's chock full of pushy people and items to bump into.
Insights
| Social-Networking–Software Tools for Business | View summary |
| D04-2454 | Download this Insight |
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This study examines the rapidly growing field of social-networking software and focuses on the most useful applications for enterprises. Social-networking software builds or finds social networks via Internet connections. One form of social-networking software—it focuses on social-network analysis—appears to have the most immediate potential for businesses. This type of networking software leverages relationship information that already exists within an enterprise, and assembling the network requires no significant time expenditures on the part of employees. Although social-network–analysis applications remain in beta testing and face looming privacy issues, they nevertheless merit attention because of their ability to save companies significant time and effort in finding useful business contacts. Author: Thomas M. McKenna. |
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| Futures Markets as Forecasting Tools | View summary |
| D04-2455 | Download this Insight |
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Despite the public outcry about the Policy Analysis Market, a U.S. governmentfunded project that aimed to predict terrorist activity, futures markets have become an increasingly popular forecasting tool for businesses and government agencies. Historical data show that commodities futures markets have accurately predicted events that affect these commodities' markets: Orange-juice futures, for example, can predict Florida weather patterns more accurately than meteorologists can. Thus, sources such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's Technology Review and Hewlett-Packard want to reap similar benefits by hosting futures markets on ideas and issues important to their businesses. Companies can use futures markets to predict industry trends, forecast sales figures, hedge against harmful macroeconomic conditions, or place bets on future events in the same manner as they would invest money in equities. Though futures markets must stand the test of time to prove their value, they have already caught the attention of some of the world's largest organizations. Author: Greg Powell. |
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| RFID on Top of the Hype Curve | View summary |
| D04-2456 | Download this Insight |
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In 2003, press reports about RFID (radio-frequency identification) rose to a new level of enthusiasm, maintaining that the technology will revolutionize the supply chain, provide unheard-of efficiency gains, deliver a torrent of useful data, enable completely new applications, and allow consumers to conduct their lives in completely new ways. Although the technology indeed has great potential, these visions are a bit premature. Before RFID can offer the heralded benefits, it must overcome a range of technological, business, and implementation challenges. On the technology front, developers need to improve RFID's reliability and accuracy, reduce interference, develop standards, and put the necessary infrastructure in place. In the market, RFID needs to compete with the existing infrastructure of bar codes and other identification technologies—a challenge the technology cannot meet until costs drop significantly. So far, RFID technology has proved itself in only limited pilot projects or closed settings, such as manufacturing environments. Nonetheless, a number of initiatives—such as Wal-Mart's requirement that its suppliers convert to RFID by 2005—are giving RFID new momentum that could speed its adoption. Author: Martin Schwirn. |
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| Microbioanalytical Devices: Trends and Developments | View summary |
| D04-2457 | Download this Insight |
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Microarray-based bioanalytical devices have great potential in genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics, offering miniaturized, highly efficient platforms for parallel assays of a large number of biological molecules. These devices are transforming the way that scientists screen drug candidates, identify disease-predisposition markers, and analyze environmental and clinical samples for pathogens or toxic materials. They require 1000 to 10 000 fewer samples per analysis than existing methods do, and they shorten the analysis time from days to minutes—while reducing the cost and increasing the accuracy of analysis. Smaller components, integration of these components, and automation not only save reagents, sample volume, and time but also provide new capabilities. For example, future diagnostic devices will provide rapid analytical results on multiple parameters and enable medical practitioners to diagnose conditions quickly and respond immediately. Given the many benefits of microarray devices, competition to develop the technology is intense. Moreover, several challenges need attention for the devices to gain widespread market acceptance. Most pressing is the need to introduce products at a price the market can afford. Author: Jose Joseph. |
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Calendar
Scan™ Briefings
The biannual Scan™ Briefings in which Scan staff present Scan analysis and findings in Menlo Park, California, will take place on:
- 20 May 2004 at 8:00 am
- 21 October 2004 at 8:00 am
Scan™ Abstract Meetings
Scan abstract meetings (in which SRIC-BI [now SBI] staff participate in a free-form discussion of current Scan abstracts) are open for client observation/participation on:
- 17 March 2004 at 9:00 am
- 19 May 2004 at 1:30 pm
- 21 July 2004 at 9:00 am
- 22 September 2004 at 9:00 am
- 20 October 2004 at 1:30 pm
Watch List
The Scan program's scanning and research processes identify areas on the periphery of your organizations's focus that constitute potential opportunities or threats. The areas that we decide bear watching go on Scan's watch list of defining forces that are transforming the business environment. Current watch-list topics include:
